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Sample State Fiscal Analyses
FISCAL NOTES GENERATED TO HELP legislatures assess the budgetary impact of tuition equity bills typically focus on immediate costs and do not consider the long-term economic benefits of these measures. These analyses generally conclude, however, that tuition equity policies have minimal or no negative impact on state budgets.
Colorado Legislative Council Staff Fiscal Note on SB 13-033 (Feb. 22, 2013).
- This bill will increase revenue from tuition by about $2.0 million in FY 2013–14 and by about $3.0 million in FY 2014–15. Assumes that this money will be spent on instructional costs of a higher education for the new students.
- This bill will increase expenses for institutions of higher education and require a General Fund appropriation to the College Opportunity Fund of $930,000 in FY 2013–14 and $1,395,000 in FY 2014–15.
A Sizeable Return on Investment: Costs and Benefits of Colorado’s ASSET Bill (Colorado Fiscal Institute, Feb. 2013).
Fiscal Notes With Respect to HB 6390 (Connecticut Office of Fiscal Analysis).
- The Office of Fiscal Analysis (OFA) generated several fiscal notes which the Connecticut General Assembly used in considering whether to extend in-state tuition to undocumented immigrant students. The fiscal notes generally found no fiscal impact resulting from the original bill and its subsequent amendments.
Report submitted to the president of the Hawaii Senate by the Committee on Education regarding HB 1457 (Mar. 23, 2012).
In considering whether to provide undocumented students access to in-state tuition, the Committee on Education took note of the University of Hawaii associate vice president for student affairs’ estimate that college graduates earn more than $1,000,000 over their lifespan. Based on the calculations of the associate vice president, allowing students without lawful immigration status to receive higher education in Hawaii would enable them to earn approximately $1,800,000,000 after graduation. Assuming that these graduates pay approximately 20 percent of their earnings in taxes to the state, the amount in taxes these graduates would contribute to the state over the course of their lives would equal approximately $360,000,000. The analysis concludes that failure to pass HB 1457 would result in significant lost revenue for Hawaii.
Private and Government Fiscal Costs and Benefits of the Maryland Dream Act (T. H. Gindling and Marvin Mandell, Maryland Institute for Policy Analysis and Research, University of Maryland, Baltimore County, Oct. 2012).
- For each annual Maryland Dream Act cohort, the net long-term economic benefit to state, local and federal governments would equal $24.6 million as a result of increased tax revenue and decreased incarceration spending. Each Maryland Dream Act cohort would gain $41.6 million in net private benefits as a result of their increased earning potential.
- State and local governments could experience an increase of tax revenue (income and sales taxes) of $6.1 million, while spending on incarceration could decrease by $7.3 million. The authors also project an increase in federal tax revenue (income and Medicare taxes) of $18.5 million.
- Implementation of the Maryland Dream Act would increase high school graduation rates by an estimated 5 percent.
Revenues from Undocumented Immigrants Paying In-State Rates (Update of 2006 Report), (Massachusetts Taxpayers Foundation, July 18, 2011).
- The foundation estimates that 910 undocumented students graduate from Massachusetts high schools each year. Based on a four-year projection, if 315 to 365 of these students (35–40 percent) enrolled in the state’s public higher education system, campuses would receive between $1.8 and $2.1 million in new revenues in the first year. By the fourth year, new revenues from 756 to 876 undocumented students would total between $6.4 and $7.4 million.
- The tuition and fees from undocumented students would generate new revenues for the state’s higher education campuses because few, if any, undocumented immigrants are currently enrolled and paying out-of-state rates in these institutions. The commonwealth’s 29 campuses could accommodate this small number of students at virtually no additional cost.
In-State Tuition Rates and Immigrants (Antoniya Owens, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, Spring 2007).
NEW JERSEY (Tuition Equity & Financial Aid)
In-State Tuition for Immigrant Students (pp. 22-35 of appendix to Report to [New Jersey] Governor Jon S. Corzine Submitted by the Governor’s Blue Ribbon Advisory Panel on Immigrant Policy).
- Of the estimated 28,000 high school–age students who were undocumented in New Jersey, only about 2,000 would be eligible for in-state tuition.
- “Higher education is a necessary precursor to accessing higher paying jobs: according to the New Jersey Department of Labor and Workforce Development, householders with only a high school diploma have a median income of $51,359 annually while those with a bachelor’s degree or higher earn a median income of $106,467.”
“New Jersey has the highest rate of out-migration of high school graduates entering postsecondary institutions in the nation. In this sense, expanding the total pool of eligible residents can increase total school revenues and keep talented high school graduates in New Jersey at state institutions. By helping reverse the trend of out-migration of New Jersey high school graduates, this initiative can lessen an estimated $1.5 billion revenue loss to New Jersey residents who attend college in other states.”
Issue Brief: To Put the "Equity" in Tuition Equity, Access to State Aid Is Essential (Erika Nava, New Jersey Policy Perspective, Nov. 14, 2013).
- The main headings in this issue brief are "The Context of Tuition Equity in New Jersey," "High Costs Shut the Door to Higher Education," "Lack of Access to Aid Limits Options," and "The Cost of Tuition Equity vs. The Cost of Inaction." The issue brief also includes an appendix titled "How Tuition Equity With Access to Aid Would Work."
- The issue brief includes tables titled "New Jersey Has Invested Heavily in Public Education in Districts with High Numbers of Foreign-Born Students," "Two Years of Out-of-State Tuition at Community Colleges Remains Out of Reach for Many Families," and "Out-of-State Tuition at Community Colleges Eats Up Large Share of Average Annual Household Income."
NEW YORK (Financial Aid)
The New York State DREAM Act (Office of the State Comptroller, May 2013).
- “The Office of the State Comptroller (OSC) estimates that the cost of extending eligibility for the Tuition Assistance Program (which accounts for nearly all State financial aid) to undocumented students at public institutions of higher education in New York State would have been less than $20 million in the current school year based on actual enrollment — less than 2 percent of TAP aid.”
The New York State DREAM Legislation: A Strong Return on Investment (Fiscal Policy Institute, February 27, 2013).
The New York State DREAM Act: A Preliminary Estimate of Costs and Benefits (Fiscal Policy Institute, March 9, 2012).
Tuition Equity in Oregon: SB 742 (2011 Legislative Issue Brief: Higher Education, Oregon University System).
- Predicts that SB 742, which would make immigrants who meet certain criteria, regardless of their status, eligible for in-state tuition at an Oregon University System institution, would produce a net revenue gain of $23,490 (assuming an increase of three students) for 2011–13; and a net revenue gain of $608,013 (assuming an increase of 72 students). Since the 2013–15 figures represent fewer than 15 students enrolled per campus, no additional faculty would need to be hired.
The Washington State Dream Act: An Investment for All Washingtonians (Elena Hernandez, Washington State Budget and Policy Center, February 2014).
- “For every Dreamer that receives the [state needs grant, or SNG,] and earns a bachelor’s degree, the tax revenue return to the state and localities could be as much as $43,000 over the course of a 40-year working life . . . . For a recipient of the SNG that graduates from a community and technical college (CTC), the revenue return could be up to $22,000 over a 40-year working life.” (Citations omitted.)
- “Every $1 invested through the SNG in a Dreamer who graduates from a four-year university could produce up to $2 in increased state and local tax revenue over time. . . . [E]very $1 invested through the SNG in a Dreamer who graduates from a community and technical college (CTC) could produce up to $4 in increased state and local tax revenue.” (Citations omitted.)
- “Over 40 years, the net return of this investment for the state could be as much as $43,000 per graduate at a four-year public university and $22,000 per graduate at a public CTC.” (Citations omitted.)