Sample State Fiscal Analyses

Connecticut

Hawaii

Massachusetts

New Jersey

New York

Oregon

 

FISCAL NOTES GENERATED TO HELP legislatures assess the budgetary impact of tuition equity bills typically focus on immediate costs and do not consider the long-term economic benefits of these measures. These analyses generally conclude, however, that tuition equity policies have minimal or no negative impact on state budgets.

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CONNECTICUT

Fiscal Notes With Respect to HB 6390 (Connecticut Office of Fiscal Analysis).

• The Office of Fiscal Analysis (OFA) generated several fiscal notes which the Connecticut General Assembly used in considering whether to extend in-state tuition to undocumented immigrant students. The fiscal notes generally found no fiscal impact resulting from the original bill and its subsequent amendments.
  
  

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HAWAII

Report submitted to the president of the Hawaii Senate by the Committee on Education regarding HB 1457 (Mar. 23, 2012).

• In considering whether to provide undocumented students access to in-state tuition, the Committee on Education took note of the University of Hawaii associate vice president for student affairs’ estimate that college graduates earn more than $1,000,000 over their lifespan. Based on the calculations of the associate vice president, allowing students without lawful immigration status to receive higher education in Hawaii would enable them to earn approximately $1,800,000,000 after graduation. Assuming that these graduates pay approximately 20 percent of their earnings in taxes to the state, the amount in taxes these graduates would contribute to the state over the course of their lives would equal approximately $360,000,000. The analysis concludes that failure to pass HB 1457 would result in significant lost revenue for Hawaii.
  
  

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MASSACHUSETTS

Revenues from Undocumented Immigrants Paying In-State Rates (Update of 2006 Report), (Massachusetts Taxpayers Foundation, July 18, 2011).

• The foundation estimates that 910 undocumented students graduate from Massachusetts high schools each year. Based on a four-year projection, if 315 to 365 of these students (35–40 percent) enrolled in the state’s public higher education system, campuses would receive between $1.8 and $2.1 million in new revenues in the first year. By the fourth year, new revenues from 756 to 876 undocumented students would total between $6.4 and $7.4 million.
• The tuition and fees from undocumented students would generate new revenues for the state’s higher education campuses because few, if any, undocumented immigrants are currently enrolled and paying out-of-state rates in these institutions. The commonwealth’s 29 campuses could accommodate this small number of students at virtually no additional cost.

In-State Tuition Rates and Immigrants (Antoniya Owens, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, Spring 2007).

• Expanding eligibility for in-state tuition could have the positive effect of increasing enrollment. Although undocumented students would comprise “less than half a percent of the state’s 160,000 public college students,” colleges stand to gain net tuition revenues of “$300,000 in 2006 and up to $2.7 million by 2009.” Citing the Massachusetts Taxpayers Foundation.

• This article dispels the argument that tuition equity measures attract students from out-of-state. “Eligibility criteria almost always require students to have attended a high school in state for several years. This automatically precludes many out-of-state students from applying and reduces the likelihood of a given state becoming a magnet.”
  
  

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NEW JERSEY

In-State Tuition for Immigrant Students (pp. 22-35 of appendix to Report to [New Jersey] Governor Jon S. Corzine Submitted by the Governor’s Blue Ribbon Advisory Panel on Immigrant Policy).

• Of the estimated 28,000 high school–age students who were undocumented in New Jersey, only about 2,000 would be eligible for in-state tuition.
• “Higher education is a necessary precursor to accessing higher paying jobs: according to the New Jersey Department of Labor and Workforce Development, householders with only a high school diploma have a median income of $51,359 annually while those with a bachelor’s degree or higher earn a median income of $106,467.”

• “New Jersey has the highest rate of out-migration of high school graduates entering postsecondary institutions in the nation. In this sense, expanding the total pool of eligible residents can increase total school revenues and keep talented high school graduates in New Jersey at state institutions. By helping reverse the trend of out-migration of New Jersey high school graduates, this initiative can lessen an estimated $1.5 billion revenue loss to New Jersey residents who attend college in other states.”
  
  

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NEW YORK (Financial Aid)

The New York State DREAM Legislation: A Strong Return on Investment (Fiscal Policy Institute, February 27, 2013).

The New York State DREAM Act: A Preliminary Estimate of Costs and Benefits (Fiscal Policy Institute, March 9, 2012).

• During the 2011–12 session, the New York legislature considered a bill allowing students who meet in-state tuition requirements to qualify for financial aid through New York’s Tuition Assistance Program (TAP). This report concludes that, if enacted, this bill would increase TAP expenditures by $17 million, or just two percent of total spending.
• FPI’s analysis expressly recognizes the economic benefits to the state of investing in access to education for these students. TAP aid of $20,000 ($5,000 per year for four-year colleges) allows a worker with a bachelor’s degree to earn $25,000 more in median income than a worker with only a high school degree. TAP aid of $8,000 ($4,000 per year for two-year colleges) leading to a two-year college degree yields $10,000 more in median income than that of a worker with only a high school degree.

• The analysis finds that increasing the education level of a state’s workers increases their productivity and that states with a more highly educated labor force are more attractive as a place to locate businesses.
  
  

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OREGON

Tuition Equity in Oregon: SB 742 (2011 Legislative Issue Brief: Higher Education, Oregon University System).

• Predicts that SB 742, which would make immigrants who meet certain criteria, regardless of their status, eligible for in-state tuition at an Oregon University System institution, would produce a net revenue gain of $23,490 (assuming an increase of three students) for 2011–13; and a net revenue gain of $608,013 (assuming an increase of 72 students). Since the 2013–15 figures represent fewer than 15 students enrolled per campus, no additional faculty would need to be hired.